

一 |
期货日报 美债全线上涨! 截至发稿,美国2年期国债上涨0.12%,美国5年期国债上涨0.48%,美国10年期国债上涨0.48%,美国30年期国债上涨0.35%。

二 | 其中,美国30年期国债收益率已经连续超40天站上5%。 An off-duty pilot is charged with 83 counts of attempted murder after he allegedly tried to shut off the engines by pulling the fire extinguisher handles on an Alaska Airlines flight, according to officials.The plane was scheduled to fly from Everett, Washington, to San Francisco before it diverted late Sunday to Portland after a "credible security threat related to an authorized occupant in the flight deck jump seat," the airline confirmed to ABC News.The suspect allegedly tried to pull the fire extinguisher handles on the engines, preliminary information obtained by investigators indicated, according to a federal official briefed on the probe. The suspect was overwhelmed by flight crew and subdued and then handcuffed to a seat, the federal official told ABC News.The suspect, Joseph David Emerson, was taken into custody, the Port of Portland confirmed. Emerson is charged with 83 counts of attempted murder, according to the Multnomah County Sheriff's Office. He is also facing 83 counts of reckless endangerment, a misdemeanor, and one felony count of endangering an aircraft.The suspect was en route to San Francisco, where he was scheduled to be on a flight crew of a 737, the official said.Alaska Airlines said the off-duty pilot was sitting in the flight deck jump seat -- which is in the cockpit -- and "unsuccessfully attempted to disrupt the operation of the engines."The captain and first officer "quickly responded," Alaska said, adding engine power was not lost and the crew secured the aircraft without incident.There were 80 passengers and four crew members on the flight, according to Alaska.Passenger Aubrey Gavello told ABC News, "We didn't know anything was happening until the flight attendant got on the loudspeaker and made an announcement that there was an emergency situation and the plane needed to land immediately. … About 15 minutes later, she got back on and said that there was a medical emergency."Passenger Alex Wood said the pilot announced that "there was a disturbance in the cockpit."Gavello said she heard a flight attendant tell the suspect, "We're going to be fine, it's OK, we'll get you off the plane.""So I really thought it was a serious medical emergency," she said.Wood added, "It was very professional, handled very calmly, and we didn't really know what was going on until we landed."Once the plane landed, Wood said police went to the back of the plane and escorted a handcuffed man off the plane. He noted that the suspect "was wearing a lanyard, a sweater. Looked like an airline employee."Gavello said, "After we did land and the gentleman was escorted off, the flight attendant got back on the speaker and said, plain and simple, 'He had a mental breakdown. We needed to get him off the plane immediately.'"The Federal Aviation Administration said in a statement to carriers that the incident is "not connected in any way shape or form to current world events."The event is being investigated by law enforcement, the airline said. The FBI confirmed it is looking into the incident and "can assure the traveling public there is no continuing threat related to this incident."Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg said in a statement, "I am grateful for the professional flight crew and air traffic controllers who stepped up to guide this plane safely to Portland. FAA supports law enforcement in their response and will be focused on any safety considerations for the future that emerge from investigations."The pilots union Air Line Pilots Association, International in a statement praised the pilots and crew who safely landed the plane and said it's fully cooperating with authorities.The union added, "The airline pilot profession in North America is one of the most highly vetted and scrutinized careers, and for good reason. For decades, the United States has pioneered a proactive approach to improving aviation safety and maintaining a healthy work environment for pilots. In addition, U.S. pilots are continuously evaluated throughout their careers through training, medical exams, crew resource management, and programs such as the Line Operations Safety Audit, as well as by the airline and during random flight checks by the Federal Aviation Administration."。 与此同时,趋势跟踪型对冲基金(CTA)与杠杆投资者在美债期货上建立了史上最大规模的净空头头寸。巨额资金押注债券价格继续下跌、收益率持续上行。 据悉,美国财政部决定采取行动,从下月起,长期国债的回购规模至少翻番。 但专家称此举是“用创可贴治枪伤”。市场最初以涨势加以回应:长期美债的价格上扬,30年期美债收益率从数日前创下的19年来的最高位回落。但相关效果迅速归零,收益率再度抬头。 摩根大通认为,回购美国国债或能带来暂时缓解,却可能只是将债务问题的爆发推迟。美国财政部在做什么?其实是在回购期限较长的债券,同时发行短期票据。 摩根大通有专家指出:“这类似于用信用卡还房贷,短期或奏效,但错配一定会愈加明显。”美国国债的规模持续震撼经济界。它已攀升至40万亿美元,推动美国30年期国债收益率升至19年以来的最高点。

三 | 美国10年期国债的收益率逼近年化5%的关口。

四 | 这相当于5年前的约3倍。 与此同时,美联储已经3年没上调利率。市场普遍怀疑,美国财政部是否有足够“火力”去管理一个庞大的固定收益市场。 美国财政部长贝森特的投资导师杜肯家族办公室负责人斯坦利·德鲁肯米勒警告称,如果没有财政纪律,美国财政部压低美债收益率的努力不仅会伤害市场,也会损害美国财政部的公信力。 他在《华尔街日报》专栏中写道:“如果30年期美债必须以5.5%的收益率成交,那不是危机,而是一张账单。

五 | 真正能持久压低长期收益率的唯一办法,是解决初级赤字。” BCA首席策略师瑞安·斯威夫特在客户报告中表示:“如果美国政府真的想压低债券收益率,美联储必须参与其中。除非美联储动用资产负债表,否则美国政府压低债券收益率的任何努力都将失败。事实上,如果投资者开始察觉政府在急于求成,这些努力甚至可能适得其反。” 不过,斯威夫特认为,美联储主席凯文·沃什可能不愿介入。沃什在其短暂执掌美联储期间,一直强调应让市场发挥价格发现功能。太平洋投资管理公司公共政策主管坎特里尔提醒投资者,即便技术手段能短期压低收益率,但美国巨额预算赤字这一根本矛盾并未消失。 在40万亿美元债务红线的背景下,支撑国债融资的供应压力依然巨大。根据摩根大通截至8月24日的客户调查,市场头寸正呈现出两极分化的态势:中性头寸降至54%,为今年5月以来最低。 这意味着,在“贝森特期权”的影响下,原本观望的资金正被迫入场,在政策干预与宏观压力之间寻找新的平衡点。责任编辑:李铁民。
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